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区块链促使产业价值链增殖数理论证

2019-02-25 09:54来源:未知关注:作者:丽丽

北大博雅特聘教授向凌云在对区块链促进消费机理分析,定性揭示了交换可能引致的价值增殖。以企业价值最大化为出发点,向凌云教授构建了价值创造最大化的数学模型,再定量加以论证。

因为,产业价值链上的企业价值不仅仅取决于当前经营活动的绩效,如销售额、利润等,更重要的是还取决于未来持续盈利能力,企业的价值可表述为未来收益的现值,故企业价值(Value of enterprise)最大化目标可表示成:

 

 

 

 

经济学中对效率评断标准是既定资源约束下实现价值最大化或或实现既定价值时耗费资源最小化。对于产业价值链来说,就是在既定资源约束下实现产业价值创造的最优。郁鸿义(2005)以产业链整体效率为对象建立了产业链效率评判基准。向凌云教授利用这一思想,构建区块链交换实现产业价值链价值创造的动态数学模型。利用拉格朗日乘数法来确定企业i第t年度的最大利润值及各生产环节上的最佳资源消耗量,其过程如下:

 

 

 

 

5. 以上得出的解为静态解,当进行区块链交换时,消费者和产业链都会发生变化:消费者在交换中增加了价值进而扩大了消费,同时为企业传递了消费信息;企业因为消费的持续增加稳定了生产计划;由于提前获知了消费需求动向,减少了新产品研发和推向市场的风险;同时大大降低了广告宣传费用,进而也使得销售收益增加。这些动态的变化表现在模型中就是变量Ft和rt的变化:Ft是区块链交换增函数,rt是区块链交换的减函数。用公式表示如下

 

 

 

 

上述数理论证证明区块链交换能够推动产业价值链扩大,扩展了产业价值链的价值边界,优化了资源配置效率,实现了生产和交换的帕累托改进。

A Theoretical Proof of How Blockchain Increases Value Across the Industrial Value Chain

Distinguished Professor Lingyun Xiang from Peking University's Boya project has analyzed how blockchain promotes increased consumption and qualitatively revealed the value proliferation that may be caused by the blockchain exchange. In order to maximize enterprise value, Professor Xiang has constructed a mathematical model that allows for value maximization and then quantitatively demonstrated its empirical validity.

As enterprise value in the industrial value chain depends not only on the performance of current business such as sales and profits, but more importantly, on how much these profits will be in the future, the enterprise value can be expressed as the present value of future earnings. Therefore, the target of maximizing enterprise value can be expressed as:

 

 

Among them, rf is the risk-free return rate of the market; rm is the enterprise’s expected return at a specific risk level; β is the risk premium coefficient.

According to the CAPM (Capital Assets Pricing Mode1), (2) is substituted into (1) to correct (1):

 

 

In economics, efficiency is the criterion used to evaluate whether an enterprise is maximizing the value or minimizing the cost of resources. For the industrial value chain, it is to maximize industrial value under the constraints of resources. Hongyi Yu (2005) established the benchmark for industrial chain efficiency evaluation based on the overall efficiency of the industrial chain. Professor Xiang used this idea to construct a dynamic mathematical model of blockchain exchange to correctly describe how value is created across the industrial value chain. The Lagrangian multiplier method is used to determine the maximum profit value of Enterprise i in the t-year and the optimal resource consumption in each production process. The process is as follows:

 

 

4. Solving the above m+1 element equations, we can get xij* and λ, and substitute the objective function to get the enterprise’s maximum present profit in the t-year in the industry value chain. According to formula (3), the maximum present value is

 

5. The solution obtained above is static. When a blockchain exchange happens, the consumer and the industrial chain will change: the consumer adds value in the exchange and increases consumption while conveying consumption information for the enterprise. This smooths out an enterprise’s production as it leads to a continuous and predictable increase in consumption since consumer demand trends are known in advance; this also reduces the risk of new product development and the amount of market promotion needed. At the same time, advertising expenses are greatly reduced, which in turn leads to an increase in sales revenue. These dynamic changes are manifested in the model as changes in the variables Ft and rt: Ft is the increasing function of the blockchain exchange, and rt is the decreasing function of the blockchain exchange. Formulated as follows

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lingyun Xiang, PhD

Dr. Lingyun Xiang is a famous economist, Distinguished Professor of the Boya Organization of Peking University, World Most Distinguished Chinese, Excellent Leader in the Financial Industry, and a well-known investor. He is a senior financial risk management consultant, an invited researcher at the Academic Committee of the China Academy of Management Sciences, Deputy Director of the Blockchain Research Center of the Institute of Emerging Economic Industries of the Chinese Academy of Management Sciences, Chief Expert of the Chinese Entrepreneur Innovation Think Tank, Think Tank Specialist of Peking University Yuanpei Business School, Researcher of the Asian Blockchain Industry Research Institute, Chief Researcher of Asian Blockchain Society, Researcher at System Optimization Lab of Stanford University Dept of Management Science and Researcher of China Enterprise System Optimization R&D Center of China-US Silicon Valley Development Promotion Association, Professor of Enterprise Management of the Professional Audit Committee of American International Professional Management Organization, and Distinguished Professor of Guanghua Law School of Zhejiang University.

Xiang is a Special Adviser to the United Nations Scientific and Technical Organization, Chairman of the International Economic Promotion Association, Chairman of the Blockchain Alliance, Honorary Chairman of the ASEAN Capital Construction Alliance, Honorary Advisor of the Chinese American Federation, Consultant of the Intelligent Education Research Department of the Doctoral Think Tank Research Institute, Honorary Chairman of the Financial and Trade Enterprise of Guizhou Province, Consultant of Guizhou Green Ecology Development Promotion Association, and Economic Consultant of Danzhai County Government, etc.

He has extensive experience in business model design and compliance in the blockchain industry and is familiar with the multinational legal status quo and policy environment. He is also proficient in international law, civil law, economic law, partnership law, tax law, and securities law. He has awarded by authoritative organizations many times.

He is the author of The Logic of Blockchain, Equity Incentives and Practice, Private Equity Investment Solutions, Decisive Winning Financing - SME Financing and Growth, Global Visual Economics, Industrial Economy Studies, International Trade and Economic Management, Logistics Warehousing Management and E-Commerce, Investment Risk and Operation Management and many other books published at home and abroad. He also owns a number of inventions with national patents.

In 2014, he was awarded the “Outstanding Achievement Award” by the US National Investment and Trade Commission for outstanding contributions in the field of investment and trade between China and the United States. On June 28, 2014, he was awarded the “World Most Distinguished Chinese Award” by the American International Cultural Exchange Foundation and the World Chinese Entrepreneurs Association. “2014 China Financial Industry Best Leader” and “Golden Tripod Awards” were awarded in 2014 by the China International Financial Brand Innovation Summit. In December 2017, the Chinese Academy of Management Science Academic Committee awarded him with “2017 Financial Excellent Individual in the industry”, In 2018, the Second China Economic Summit awarded him “Top 10 Outstanding Individuals in China's Economy”. On June 2, 2018, the 9th China Management Innovation Conference awarded him “Outstanding Individual in Management Science · Internet Financial Industry”; On July 22, 2018, the 3rd China Economic and Brand Innovation Summit was awarded “2018 Top 10 Outstanding Talents in China's Financial Industry”; On September 8, 2018, at the New Economy Industry Leaders Summit and Blockchian Technology & Development Forum, he was awarded "Top 10 Leaders in 2018 China Blockchain Industry", etc.

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